The MLB offseason is already bringing some significant salary figures into focus, and Paul Skenes could be one of the biggest names in the upcoming arbitration cycle. The Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander is projected to earn $7.2 million in 2027, a figure that would put him within striking distance of the record for a pitcher entering salary arbitration for the first time.

According to MLB Trade Rumors, Matt Swartz's projection model estimates Skenes' salary at just $50,000 below the $7.25 million Dallas Keuchel received from the Houston Astros for the 2016 season. If Skenes lands near that projection, he could surpass a mark that has stood for more than a decade.

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Paul Skenes and a potentially historic arbitration salary

Skenes' case stands out in MLB's arbitration system. He made his major league debut in 2024 and quickly established himself as one of the National League's premier starting pitchers, earning individual honors that strengthen his position in salary negotiations.

In his first full season, the right-hander won National League Rookie of the Year and finished third in the Cy Young Award voting. He took another major step forward in 2025, winning the NL Cy Young Award as the league's top pitcher.

Those accomplishments carry considerable weight in arbitration, which is not determined solely by a player's most recent statistics. For players entering the process for the first time, career production, individual awards and the salaries of comparable players in similar circumstances can all factor into the evaluation.

According to Pittsburgh Baseball Now, Skenes presents an unusual case for salary evaluators. Winning both Rookie of the Year and a Cy Young Award before reaching his first arbitration eligibility creates a particularly challenging set of comparisons.

How did Skenes perform in 2026?

Although Skenes did not replicate the dominance of his previous season, he earned another All-Star selection and continued to shoulder a significant workload in Pittsburgh's rotation.

According to Baseball-Reference, Skenes finished the 2026 regular season with the following numbers:

His performance reflected a less dominant campaign than the one before it, but he remained a consistent presence and a cornerstone of the Pirates' rotation. In 2025, Skenes posted a 1.96 ERA and accumulated 5.2 WAR, according to Baseball-Reference, underscoring just how impressive his early major league career has been.

The difference between the two seasons adds another layer to his arbitration case. While his 2026 numbers fell short of the standards he established in 2025, his overall track record, individual honors and production to date remain important factors in determining his market value through the arbitration system.

Dallas Keuchel sets the benchmark for Skenes

The historical comparison is Dallas Keuchel, who earned $7.25 million in his first year of salary arbitration with the Houston Astros in 2016.

Skenes' projected salary is just $50,000 shy of that figure. Given the narrow gap and the fact that negotiations have yet to play out, his final salary could fall short of, match or exceed Keuchel's benchmark.

It is important, however, to distinguish a projection from an official agreement. The $7.2 million figure published by MLB Trade Rumors is an estimate of what Skenes could earn in 2027, not a confirmed salary from the Pirates.

Salary arbitration gives eligible players an opportunity to negotiate their pay with their clubs. If the two sides cannot reach an agreement, the case can proceed to a hearing, where an independent panel selects one of the salary figures submitted by the player and the team.

Pittsburgh faces an important financial decision

For Pittsburgh, a potential salary increase for Skenes would be a natural part of the rising cost of retaining its young stars. The right-hander earned just over $1 million in 2026, making the projected figure for next season a substantial increase.

Even with that raise, arbitration allows teams to retain control over eligible players during a stage of their careers when they are not yet free to negotiate with other clubs. According to Baseball-Reference, Skenes is currently projected to reach free agency in 2030.

The challenge for the Pirates will be managing that financial commitment while building a roster capable of competing in the National League. Skenes remains one of the franchise's most important assets, and the outcome of his first arbitration case could offer an early indication of how his salary will evolve as he moves through the system.

For now, Skenes is on the verge of an important financial milestone in MLB. His projected $7.2 million salary for 2027 puts him just $50,000 below Keuchel's record, setting the stage for a potential new benchmark for pitchers entering arbitration for the first time.

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