The 2026 Major League Baseball season confirmed Rafael Devers as a primary source of power in the San Francisco Giants' lineup. However, a deep dive into his advanced metrics reveals a critical vulnerability in his offensive profile: his performance against high-velocity, four-seam fastballs.

Although the Dominican slugger maintained an impressive hard-hit rate, with a 51.6% Hard-Hit percentage and an average exit velocity of 93 mph, data from Baseball Savant indicates that high-zone fastballs created a gap between his actual and expected production. This manifested as a lower expected Batting Average (xBA) and an increase in harmless fly balls.

Addressing this issue will pose a significant challenge for Devers, especially given the looming MLB lockout. The work stoppage would entail the closure of all team facilities, leaving players in a state of inactivity, particularly those not participating in winter leagues.

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With an overall wOBA of .367 against an xwOBA of .342, Rafael Devers’ effectiveness hinges on adjusting his reaction time to pitches exceeding 96 mph. Addressing this flaw in his swing plane is the top priority for solidifying his dominance and maintaining his impact in the heart of the batting order.

Statcast metrics and the room for improvement at the plate

Statcast data shows that Rafael Devers continues to post an impressive barrel percentage (12.5%), but his whiff rate, compounded by struggles against high-velocity pitches in the upper part of the strike zone, limits his overall consistency. When opposing pitchers attack the top of the zone with four-seam fastballs, the left-handed hitter tends to produce weak fly-ball contact or swing and miss. Reducing this vulnerability would allow his expected stats to align more closely with his actual production, helping him avoid inconsistent stretches throughout the season.

For a hitter with his profile, refining his mechanics against high velocity requires an intensive biomechanical workload and the use of advanced technology during training camps. However, the window of opportunity to implement these technical adjustments is subject to external factors beyond the control of both the player and the team’s coaching staff.

Note: Data researched via the Baseball Reference website and verified by the statistics department of our media outlet, Swing Completo.

A potential lockout as an obstacle to 2027 preparations

The looming labor dispute between MLB and the Major League Baseball Players Association (MLBPA), triggered by the expiration of the Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) in December 2026, poses a direct threat to Rafael Devers’ adjustment plan. A lockout would result in the immediate closure of all team facilities and a strict prohibition on contact between coaching staff and players on the 40-man roster.

Without access to the San Francisco Giants’ complexes or the support of the analytics department, Devers would be deprived of high-velocity pitching machines and ball-tracking technology (such as TrackMan). Independent batting sessions are no substitute for regularly facing elite-level pitching. This forced inactivity would not only disrupt his competitive rhythm heading into 2027 but would also halt the technical adjustments needed to counter four-seam fastballs, effectively putting his offensive development on hold at the very peak of his career.

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Who is Rafael Devers?

Rafael Devers (born October 24, 1996, in Sánchez, Dominican Republic) is a Major League Baseball third baseman and designated hitter. He made his debut in 2017 with the Boston Red Sox, a franchise with which he won the 2018 World Series, earned two Silver Slugger Awards, and was selected to the All-Star Game three times. After signing a multi-year extension with Boston, he was traded in mid-2025 to the San Francisco Giants, where he established himself as the team’s core hitter and primary offensive star.

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